Predictive AI benchmark predicts slow macro rebound beginning in April 2020, with industry-specific exceptions
ORLANDO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Workforce Logiq, a global provider of AI-powered workforce intelligence, technology, and services to large corporations, is making its proprietary U.S. Talent Retention Risk (TRR)ScoreSM public and available online in a complimentary, interactive infographic. The AI-powered predictive employment volatility benchmark calculates U.S. companies’ risk of losing key talent in the next 90 days. The nation’s current TRRSM Score is 39.5 – up 15% from December 2019 and remains elevated vs. the highest peaks in nearly two years.
“Employment uncertainty is growing exponentially in light of COVID-19. The unprecedented rate of volatility increase underscores the risk of key employee turnover across multiple industries,” said Dr. Christy Whitehead, Chief Data Scientist and Talent Economist at Workforce Logiq. “We’re committed to helping our clients and the overall industry navigate these challenging times. Making our proprietary predictive intelligence available to the broader market enables more organizations to make data-driven, informed decisions for skill and talent gap workforce planning.”
The TRR Scoreis a predictive assessment that uses multiple AI techniques and patent-pending models to examine more than 2,000 events, triggers, and shocks that affect employment volatility. The model uses data from over 40,000 sources at both the company and industry level, including macroeconomic trends, company-level social media and news sentiment, leadership changes, employee churn indicators, and more. The score is derived from Workforce Logiq’s database of millions of companies, representing a projectable sample of the 130 million full-time U.S.-based worker population.
Insights from the TRR model include:
- The national TRR Score indicated an increase in the types of business disruptions that create employee uncertainty beginning the week of December 9, 2019 – weeks before the World Health Organization was publicly informed about cases in Wuhan of a pneumonia of ‘unknown cause’ on December 31, 2019.
- While the model cannot attribute this risk indication specifically to COVID-19, it was picking up early volatility triggers outside of its historical performance range.
- At a macro level, the TRR model is predicting volatility to bottom out during April 2020, a potential start to a slow rebound back to historically lower risk levels.
- For some industries, like Airlines and Scheduled Air Transport, the TRR velocity continues to climb dramatically without a peak: up 49% (from 45 to 67) since the week of December 9, 2019 and it’s still rising. This indicates these sectors and other highly-impacted industries will continue to experience labor and employment risks well into the summer.
- Depending on future economic jolts related to COVID-19, the macro national TRR Score could also experience a second peak, impacting recovery timing.
While the U.S. TRR Score is now available publicly, the model also provides deeper insight to clients on the industry, company, job category, skill set, and geographic level. For example, Workforce Logiq’s predictive worker volatility indices for the top 35 U.S-based job categories – a model input for TRR Score forecasts – has also surged 37% since January, due in large part to pandemic impacts. Major shifts include:
- 11% of workers in the top job categories are now considered highly likely to engage, compared to 8% at the end of 2019; a 3%-point increase equates to 4M additional workers looking to potentially jump jobs.
- Historically stable job functions are increasingly more volatile, including teachers (+101%), skilled trades (+97%), construction (+83%), restaurant workers (+58%), and healthcare workers (+77%), including nurses and doctors (+54% each).
The U.S. TRR Score is updated on a weekly basis and available on the Workforce Logiq homepage. To view the nation’s current retention risk, and how it’s evolved over time, please visit here.
About Workforce Logiq
Workforce Logiq, a global provider of AI-powered workforce intelligence, technology, and services to large corporations, enables organizations to win and retain the talent they need to grow. With clients in 50+ countries, Workforce Logiq provides expert guidance, real-time and predictive analytics, and patented and award-winning technologies. Workforce Logiq’s universal sourcing solution addresses all elements of its clients’ acquisition and retention programs, including full-time (RPO), contingent (MSP), and freelance/“gig” (FMS) workers. Backed by global investment firm The Carlyle Group, the company helps clients attain greater management, performance, and financial control over their talent supply chains.
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